Rising fiscal tensions in France have driven the OAT/Bund credit spread to its highest levels since the 2012 euro crisis, making French sovereign debt a key exposure to avoid. Globally, resilient US growth, powered by massive AI infrastructure investment and a strong wealth effect…
Global growth has remained resilient, but divergences among major economies are likely to keep widening if energy prices and yields stay elevated. The US economy stands out as the strongest, largely due to the ongoing AI capex boom supporting manufacturing activity…
The market had priced in Nvidia almost to the dollar; it was, however, less prepared for the Warsh crack. This month’s lesson: implied volatility may show up on the calendar, but real risk is measured elsewhere. Stay invested but keep an eye on what hasn’t made the headlines yet…
The binary view of the market – namely, a positive outlook on AI and a negative outlook on the software sector and hyperscalers – is over. Going forward, investors will need to take a more nuanced approach and analyse individual stocks in these sectors, even though the revolution brought about by AI remains unquestioned…
At its monetary policy meeting on June 18, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unsurprisingly kept its key interest rate at 0.0%. With domestic inflation remaining moderate and energy prices falling following an easing of tensions in the Middle East, the Swiss central bank had no reason to follow in the footsteps…
The progressive normalisation of energy flows has dramatically reduced the risks to growth and inflation for the global economy. The most affected countries are therefore expected to join the US in seeing improving growth in the coming months, albeit at a slower pace…
By investing in the S&P 500 index through ETFs, many people, whether consciously or not, will be supporting Elon Musk’s capitalist strategy. At this point, the company’s valuation will have little to do with its fundamentals…
The stock market is looking beyond the current conflict in the Middle East, but this confidence could erode as the current stalemate drags on. Bond yields continue to rise, while oil prices are hovering near recent highs. Gold continues to consolidate, and the real estate…
The prospect of a global economy mired in stagflation is gaining momentum, and there is little time left before it becomes a tangible reality. In the meantime, we must avoid drastic measures and remain as flexible as possible. In other words, we must be cautious without panicking…
Control of the Strait of Hormuz, to prevent a sustained spike in oil prices, will remain a key factor in the conflict for financial markets. Brent crude above $90/95 will be a threshold that cannot be crossed for long, at the risk of seeing a marked slowdown in the global economy…